The Silicon Standard
A lot is being written about compute markets. This is an index for everything written in this space. Each paper and article is cited.
- Works
- 189
- Sources
- 91
- Updated
- Nov 12, 2026
Type
Topic
Showing 189 of 189
- podcast2026Where Capital Meets ComputeCompute Desk's founder argues offtake contracts hedge utilization but lock in price, and describes building a risk market for compute.youtube.com ↗How Compute Desk Is Building the Risk Market Compute Never Had | Andrawes Bahou (Compute Desk)Where Capital Meets Compute
- article2026Moonrunner (Substack)Examines manipulation risk for GPU rental benchmarks once derivatives settle against them.0xmoonletter.substack.com ↗Who Can Move The Price Of A GPU Hour?Moonrunner (Substack)
- article2026Silicon DataShows GPU rents rising while token prices fall, meaning each GPU must serve more throughput to cover its rental cost.silicondata.com ↗
- post2026MelvinCites Silicon Data index readings showing record B200 and H100 rental prices as evidence of a worsening compute shortage.x.com ↗
- article2026Seoul Economic DailyReports the CFTC's 60-day review extension delaying CME's GPU rental futures to early 2027 over manipulation concerns.en.sedaily.com ↗U.S. Regulator Slows Wall Street Push for GPU FuturesSeoul Economic Daily
- post2026Orlando CosmeThread arguing that compute is about to fall under CFTC oversight as NYMEX, ICE, Kalshi and Polymarket list or seek approval for compute price contracts.x.com ↗
- podcast2026Where Capital Meets ComputeEvan Conrad explains how SF Compute came to operate clusters for others and why it wants GPU hours usable as loan collateral.youtube.com ↗How SF Compute Wants to Make the GPU Hour Collateral | Evan Conrad (SF Compute)Where Capital Meets Compute
- filing2026NYMEX (CME Group)NYMEX consents to a further 60-day extension of the CFTC's review of its H100 and B200 rental index futures.cftc.gov ↗
- article2026SetaraLaunch of a daily GPU price index based on public on-demand list prices across seven GPU models.prnewswire.com ↗
- article2026NewcomerSurveys startups building compute indices, futures and brokerage, and the regulatory and depreciation questions that give investors pause.newcomer.co · paywall ↗
- video2026ModalConference talk on why compute lacks the market infrastructure of other commodities, including price dispersion, volatility and hedging gaps.youtube.com ↗
- article2026John Lothian NewsHaight Street Compute's co-founder argues GPU compute needs an in-person trading floor before derivatives can succeed.johnlothiannews.com ↗Compute Needs a Trading Floor Before It Needs a Futures ContractJohn Lothian News
- podcast2026Upstarts MediaSF Compute's Evan Conrad talks about the credit problem in buying compute, data center geopolitics and AI startup valuations.upstartsmedia.com ↗The Accidental YC Founder Solving AI’s GPU CrisisUpstarts Media
- podcast2026Where Capital Meets ComputeBarkr's CEO explains how GPUs are valued from resale transactions and why the firm backs its valuations with a reinsurer guarantee.youtube.com ↗Why a Valuation Firm Will Guarantee Its Own GPU Marks — Thomas Galbraith (Barkr)Where Capital Meets Compute
- post2026MTSClip of Evan Conrad explaining why startups without investment-grade credit are asked to prepay years of GPU costs to secure clusters.x.com ↗
- paper2026Bank for International SettlementsBIS Bulletin No 140 mapping how data-center special purpose vehicles turn hyperscaler leases into debt and where losses could fall.bis.org ↗Building AI on credit: structures and spilloversBank for International Settlements
- post2026Atreides ManagementLinks surging GPU rental prices to demand growth that followed falling token prices across the AI market.x.com ↗
- post2026Daniel RomeroQuotes Gavin Baker arguing that DeepSeek's reported revenue per GPU-hour helps explain rising Blackwell rental prices and eases neocloud financing worries.x.com ↗
- post2026DRWArgues that rising GPU prices and falling token prices compress margins on turning rented GPUs into tokens, while GPU rental margins widen.x.com ↗
- article2026SF ComputeArgues startups without investment-grade credit will struggle to buy compute unless lenders accept GPU hours as collateral via a physically settled forwards market.evanjconrad.com ↗The end of startupsSF Compute
- filing2026Liquid ComputeComment letter to the CFTC recommending standardized compute units, strong index governance, physical delivery and extra scrutiny of perpetual contracts.liquidcompute.com ↗
- post2026Object ZeroExplainer thread on GPU-hour futures being prepared by several exchanges after the CFTC's request for comment on compute derivatives.x.com ↗
- video2026IgniteGTMThe Information's Phoebe Liu interviews Carmen Li at NeoCloud Summit 2026 as GPU compute futures head toward listing on CME.youtube.com ↗
- video2026IgniteGTMSilicon Data's head of research explains how its GPU rental price index is constructed.youtube.com ↗
- filing2026FIAFIA's response to the CFTC on listing compute derivatives, addressing the reliance on indices for price discovery in a nascent market.fia.org ↗
- article2026Vast.aiVast.ai states support for regulated compute futures and auditable settlement benchmarks.vast.ai ↗
- article2026Liquid ComputeDescribes a cash-settled floor on compute rates as a way to price GPU residual value risk for lenders.liquidcompute.com ↗
- podcast2026Odd Lots (Bloomberg)Don Wilson returns to discuss why GPU futures are needed when the future value of chips like the B200 is so uncertain, recorded live in Chicago.omny.fm ↗Don Wilson on the GPU Market's Trillion Dollar QuestionOdd Lots (Bloomberg)
- post2026Maya ZehaviArgues that the cost of capital, not spot rental rates, now sets the price of compute as AI buildout debt is repriced.x.com ↗
- podcast2026Pitch the PMCarmen Li discusses token and GPU price data and what falling token prices mean for compute markets.pitchthepm.substack.com ↗
- post2026ArchitectBrett Harrison shares Architect's comment letter to the CFTC on how U.S.-listed compute futures should be reviewed and settled.x.com ↗
- post2026Silicon DataSilicon Data announces its H100 and B200 rental index forward curves are distributed through CME Group market data channels ahead of futures trading.x.com ↗
- podcast2026The ParameterLiquid Compute's CEO explains how upfront GPU deposits tie up startup equity and how a compute market could address it.youtube.com ↗
- podcast2026Where Capital Meets ComputeVast.ai's COO explains why no two GPUs are the same, how small hosts compete on price, and Vast's markup.youtube.com ↗GPUs Are Snowflakes: Why a Compute Marketplace Doesn’t Race to the Bottom: Travis Cannell (Vast AI)Where Capital Meets Compute
- article2026Liquid ComputeLiquid Compute and K8 Capital announce a facility to finance upfront deposits for compute capacity.liquidcompute.com ↗Announcing a $250M Facility to Fund Compute BuyersLiquid Compute
- podcast2026EmpireArchitect's and Compute Desk's founders discuss opaque broker markets for GPUs and why compute needs futures for pricing and hedging.youtube.com ↗
- post2026Theory VenturesContrasts doubling GPU rental prices with steep model price cuts, attributing the gap to more output per GPU-hour.x.com ↗
- filing2026ICE Futures U.S.ICE exchange notice listing planned OCPI H100 and B200 futures, pending the CFTC comment process, with contract specifications and interim index data.ice.com ↗
- report2026Liquid ComputeAn adjustable scoring model ranking private AI companies by their likely ability to pay for multi-year GPU capacity, mapped to suitable lending structures.liquidcompute.com ↗
- article2026Tomasz TunguzExplains how GPU rental prices can rise sharply while inference prices keep falling, mainly through efficiency gains.tomtunguz.com ↗How GPU Prices Can Double While AI Gets CheaperTomasz Tunguz
- video2026MonadOrnn's CTO explains how uncertain GPU rental prices make new compute capacity harder to finance.youtube.com ↗
- post2026Eugene YeAn X Article walking through how compute could be traded as a market.x.com ↗
- video2026SmartBriefLooks at the case for compute futures as a way to price and hedge AI infrastructure investments ahead of launch.youtube.com ↗Compute Futures Get Ready To LaunchSmartBrief
- post2026Silicon DataSilicon Data pushes back on readings of its token price index as evidence for a bearish view of the AI trade.x.com ↗
- article2026FIAFIA explainer on what compute futures are, how they settle and who might use them.fia.org ↗
- article2026Liquid ComputeAnalyzes buying long fixed-price GPU contracts and reselling short-term, and the utilization and price risks that make partial hedging useful.liquidcompute.com ↗The Tenor TradeLiquid Compute
- filing2026CFTCCFTC letter extending its review of the NYMEX Silicon Data GPU rental index futures by 45 days, citing novel or complex issues.cftc.gov ↗
- article2026Liquid ComputeLaunch post describing a physical compute marketplace modeled on a power grid, with regulated cash-settled markets planned on top.liquidcompute.com ↗
- post2026Mark GoldbergAn investor's X Article explaining an investment in Liquid Compute and the case for a large compute futures market.x.com ↗
- article2026Silicon DataWorked example of hedging a 50-GPU H100 exposure with NYMEX compute futures, including cash flows and basis risk.silicondata.com ↗
- article2026Data GravityTraces how GPU-backed loans became rated, investment-grade paper by being structured so resale value barely matters.datagravity.dev ↗How the GPU Became CollateralData Gravity
- article2026Sidley AustinLaw firm update summarizing the CFTC's request for comment on compute derivatives.sidley.com ↗
- article2026Pantera CapitalSurveys the emerging capital markets for compute, from GPU-backed lending to futures and indices.panteracapital.com ↗The Rise of Compute Capital MarketsPantera Capital
- article2026Liquid ComputePrimer on how forward contracts let compute buyers, sellers and lenders lock in future GPU costs or revenues without taking delivery of hardware.liquidcompute.com ↗Hedging Compute PricesLiquid Compute
- podcast2026The Energy Gang (Wood Mackenzie)Discusses how GPU compute futures could bring benchmarking, transparency and risk management to the AI compute market, drawing on energy-market experience.woodmac.com ↗A new market for AI computeThe Energy Gang (Wood Mackenzie)
- report2026OrnnResearch note finding that open-weight models often run cheapest on older GPUs, which helps older chips such as the A100 hold their rental value longer than assumed.ornn.com ↗
- article2026FOWReports Nodal Exchange's plan for GPU compute futures settled against Compute Desk's rental price indexes.fow.com ↗
- post2026Social Graph VenturesAn X Article primer on how compute is bought and sold today and what market infrastructure is still missing.x.com ↗A Primer on Compute MarketsSocial Graph Ventures
- podcast2026Where Capital Meets ComputeCarmen Li explains how GPU price indices are built, why freight is a better analogy than oil, and how to read the GPU forward curve.youtube.com ↗Why Compute Isn't Oil, and What the Forward Curve Is Really Saying: Carmen Li (Silicon Data)Where Capital Meets Compute
- report2026Cahill Gordon & ReindelLegal analysis of emerging compute futures, why a GPU-hour may qualify as a commodity under the Commodity Exchange Act, and lessons from electricity market design.cahill.com ↗The Basis of Intelligence: Building a Derivatives Market for AI ComputeCahill Gordon & Reindel
- article2026GARPRisk-management perspective on how a compute futures market could lower capital costs and support AI risk management.garp.org ↗
- report2026HivemindArgues that cloud compute contracts already resemble spot and forward deals and proposes an exchange layer, evolving benchmarks, basis pricing and standardized debt products.hivemind.capital ↗
- podcast2026MTSEvan Conrad discusses compute market liquidity and how capital constraints shape AI infrastructure.youtube.com ↗
- podcast2026Dwarkesh PodcastSemiAnalysis's Dylan Patel discusses the concentration of new compute capacity in a few labs and the financing behind the AI buildout.dwarkesh.com ↗
- article2026Silicon DataArgues that cash-settled futures on GPU rental indices should be the first institutional hedging tool for compute because they do not require perfectly fungible hardware.silicondata.com ↗Cash-Settled Compute FuturesSilicon Data
- post2026Chamath PalihapitiyaLays out what has to be true for the first compute futures contract to work as AI capex overtakes oil and gas spending.x.com ↗
- article2026Willkie Farr & GallagherClient alert describing the background to the CFTC's compute derivatives request and summarizing its four question areas.willkie.com ↗Great Question. Let’s Break It Down: CFTC Considering Compute FuturesWillkie Farr & Gallagher
- filing2026U.S. Commodity Futures Trading CommissionAnnounces the CFTC's request for public comment on compute cash markets, manipulation risk, customer protection and perpetual compute futures.cftc.gov ↗CFTC Requests Comment on the Listing of Compute Derivatives ContractsU.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- podcast2026High Conviction PodcastKush Bavaria describes Ornn's index, marketplace and derivatives for pricing, trading and hedging compute.youtube.com ↗Turning Compute Into a Commodity – Kush Bavaria, Ornn | High Conviction #5High Conviction Podcast
- filing2026CFTCThe CFTC's request for comment (RIN 3038-AF77) on compute cash markets, manipulation risk, customer protection and perpetual compute futures.cftc.gov ↗
- article2026TransformerWeighs whether compute hedging markets would stabilize data center investment or amplify a crash.transformernews.ai ↗
- video2026BlockspaceBrett Harrison explains why compute futures differ from oil, why markets quote GPU-hours, and how hedging could cut data center loan rates.youtube.com ↗
- video2026Prof G MarketsEd Elson and Rohan Goswami debate CME's plan to let computing power trade like a commodity.youtube.com ↗“AI Compute Futures” — Has Wall Street Gone Too Far?Prof G Markets
- video2026Bloomberg TechCarmen Li discusses Silicon Data's funding, its aim to be an independent benchmark for compute and CME's planned GPU futures.youtube.com ↗Silicon Data Raises $30.5M to Benchmark AI ComputeBloomberg Tech
- article2026StratecheryCompares debt-funded AI buildouts to 19th-century railroad finance and critiques Nvidia's residual-value backstops for GPU financing platforms.stratechery.com ↗Nvidia's Risky BusinessStratechery
- post2026CME GroupCME Group promotes its planned October 5 compute futures launch and points to contract specifications settled on Silicon Data GPU benchmarks.x.com ↗
- filing2026NYMEX (CME Group)NYMEX's voluntary submission to the CFTC for approval of H100 and B200 rental index futures, including contract terms.cftc.gov ↗
- post2026Atreides ManagementArgues hyperscalers are underearning because spot GPU rental prices sit well above contracted rates, so credit-spread fears are overdone.x.com ↗
- post2026blocmatesAn X Article arguing compute could become a major tradable asset class.x.com ↗
- report2026OrnnMethodology for Ornn's GPU price indices, built as a volume-weighted, winsorized average of transacted rental deals.data.ornn.com ↗OCPI MethodologyOrnn
- article2026Buy the Rumor; Sell the NewsArgues single-GPU rental markets look liquid but usable clusters are much scarcer, limiting commoditization.davefriedman.substack.com ↗A GPU-Hour Isn't a Commodity If You Need Four of ThemBuy the Rumor; Sell the News
- post2026Silicon DataSilicon Data estimates GPU residual values from forward rental prices, finding H100s resilient, B200s appreciating and A100s stabilizing.x.com ↗
- article2026Silicon DataOverview of the move toward exchange-traded GPU futures, including observed backwardation in A100, H100 and B200 forward curves.silicondata.com ↗
- video2026Bloomberg PodcastsKalshi's chief risk officer discusses its tool plotting the future price of computing power.youtube.com ↗Kalshi Ramps Up Effort to Build Markets for AI Computing PowerBloomberg Podcasts
- paper2026Bank for International SettlementsBIS working paper modeling an AI investment contest in which debt-financed overcommitment raises the likelihood of a bust.bis.org ↗The AI investment raceBank for International Settlements
- article2026KalshiKalshi introduces forward curves for B200, H200 and A100 rental prices derived from its prediction market trading.news.kalshi.com ↗Compute forward curvesKalshi
- paper2026arXivDevelops an asset-pricing framework for compute futures and, using synthetic futures from term rentals, finds preliminary evidence of a positive compute risk premium.arxiv.org ↗
- report2026MessariResearch report arguing two-sided compute demand creates the preconditions for a hedging market.messari.io · paywall ↗
- report2026SemiAnalysisExplains how Nvidia's debt backstops combine capital, offtake and data centers to finance neocloud buildouts.newsletter.semianalysis.com · paywall ↗
- post2026ACEMAXX ANALYTICSShares a Morgan Stanley chart of the Ornn H100 compute price index showing a decline in hourly GPU rental costs.x.com ↗
- post2026OrnnOrnn announces forward curves for GPU compute prices.x.com ↗
- post2026ArchitectA guide from Architect's CEO answering common questions from neoclouds, data centers, banks and funds about trading compute in the U.S.x.com ↗
- article2026SiliconANGLEReports Ornn's $33 million seed round to build compute trading and index infrastructure.siliconangle.com ↗
- article2026a16z cryptoInvestment thesis explaining why a16z crypto backed Ornn's compute price benchmarks and plans for compute risk-transfer markets.a16zfrontier.com ↗Investing in Ornn: A Market for Computea16z crypto
- post2026Shanu MathewNotes from the Odd Lots episode on Anjney Midha's plan to lower the price of compute through AMP PBC.x.com ↗
- video2026CNBCCNBC explainer on Silicon Data and CME Group's effort to build futures contracts on GPU rental prices.youtube.com ↗
- article2026CNBCFeature on Silicon Data and CME's effort to launch futures on GPU rental prices.cnbc.com ↗
- article2026Silicon DataShows hyperscaler H100 rates staying flat while neocloud rates rose, and why the tiers are tracked separately.silicondata.com ↗
- podcast2026Odd Lots (Bloomberg)Live episode with Silicon Data and Compute Exchange CEO Carmen Li on standardizing compute, GPU price volatility and building a GPU index for futures.omny.fm ↗Carmen Li's Plan to Build a Futures Market for ComputeOdd Lots (Bloomberg)
- podcast2026Odd Lots (Bloomberg)Anjney Midha explains his effort, AMP PBC, to lower the cost of compute and how he approaches procuring GPU capacity.omny.fm ↗Anjney Midha's Plan to Radically Lower the Price of ComputeOdd Lots (Bloomberg)
- article2026Dave Friedman (Substack)Argues that perpetual futures are a poor fit for depreciating compute and that dated futures strips would better serve hedgers and lenders.davefriedman.substack.com ↗Perps Don't Work for Compute DerivativesDave Friedman (Substack)
- article2026Default StateFrames compute's path to an asset class as five stages, from pricing and trading to collateral, and outlines the risks along the way.defaultstate.substack.com ↗The Financialization of ComputeDefault State
- article2026Buy the Rumor; Sell the NewsPlain-language primer on how compute derivatives such as cash-settled GPU-hour futures work.davefriedman.substack.com ↗Compute Derivatives Market PrimerBuy the Rumor; Sell the News
- podcast2026Odd Lots (Bloomberg)CoreWeave co-founder Brannin McBee discusses GPU leases, training versus inference demand and whether compute can be standardized for trading.omny.fm ↗How CoreWeave Sees the Market for Compute Right NowOdd Lots (Bloomberg)
- post2026Silicon DataSilicon Data endorses an interview making the case for GPU futures and other compute-linked derivatives as new hedging instruments.x.com ↗
- article2026FalconXFalconX reports dealing the first OTC swap on the forward price of compute, referencing the Ornn H100 index.falconx.io ↗
- post2026HyperbolicHyperbolic comments on the ICE and Ornn plan to launch GPU compute futures as a sign that compute is becoming a financial market.x.com ↗
- filing2026ICEICE announces plans for cash-settled GPU compute futures referencing Ornn's Compute Price Index, subject to regulatory approval.ir.theice.com ↗
- article2026The Next WebCoverage of ICE's plan with Ornn for cash-settled GPU compute futures days after CME's announcement.thenextweb.com ↗
- video2026Bloomberg TechCarmen Li explains why she expects compute to become a major global commodity and how the CME partnership works.youtube.com ↗
- article2026VariantScores today's compute market against five conditions that historically precede futures markets and concludes it is not yet mature enough for a robust one.variant.fund ↗
- video2026Bloomberg TechBloomberg's Katherine Doherty explains why CME and Silicon Data are creating a futures market for computing power and how it will work.youtube.com ↗CME Plans Computing Power Futures MarketBloomberg Tech
- filing2026Silicon DataJoint announcement of a planned compute futures market based on Silicon Data's GPU rental benchmarks, pending regulatory review.silicondata.com ↗
- article2026CNBCNews report on the CME and Silicon Data compute futures announcement as a hedge for rising GPU rental rates.cnbc.com ↗
- post2026ArchitectAnnounces quarterly, monthly and yearly compute futures on Nvidia H100/H200 rental prices trading on Architect.x.com ↗
- post2026Arpit GuptaA finance professor welcomes compute futures as both a hedging tool and a price signal on AI progress.x.com ↗
- video2026Bloomberg TelevisionBlackRock's CEO says demand for computing power is large enough to create a new asset class, speaking at the Milken conference.youtube.com ↗Larry Fink Says Futures of Compute Will Be New Asset ClassBloomberg Television
- article2026Silicon DataProposes deriving a published GPU forward curve from rental term-structure rates so compute can be priced and hedged like other commodities.silicondata.com ↗
- paper2026Peterson Institute for International EconomicsBuilds a macroeconomic estimate of U.S. AI output, using GPU-hour rental prices and API prices to track compute spending and quality-adjusted output.piie.com ↗Measuring the AI EconomyPeterson Institute for International Economics
- post2026Theory VenturesNotes B200 rental prices on the Ornn index more than doubling in six weeks and the premium over prior-generation chips widening.x.com ↗
- video2026SiliconANGLE theCUBEOrnn's CEO discusses compute as a financeable, tradable commodity.youtube.com ↗
- post2026Theory VenturesArgues AI is entering a period of supply scarcity, citing a 48% two-month rise in Blackwell rental prices and CoreWeave price increases.x.com ↗
- article2026Theory VenturesArgues rapidly rising GPU rental prices mean startups will increasingly compete on access to compute.tomtunguz.com ↗The Beginning of Scarcity in AITheory Ventures
- article2026Hashrate IndexReviews used A100 and H100 pricing and why the secondary market matters for neocloud depreciation.hashrateindex.com ↗
- post2026OrnnOrnn announces its H100 contract is live on Architect's AX exchange.x.com ↗
- post2026ArchitectArchitect launches perpetual futures on Nvidia H100 rental prices on its AX exchange using Ornn indices, with H200, B200 and DRAM to follow.x.com ↗
- report2026SemiAnalysisLaunches a one-year H100 rental contract price index and documents the rebound in rental prices from their late-2025 low.newsletter.semianalysis.com ↗
- post2026SemiAnalysisSemiAnalysis announces its H100 one-year rental price index and dashboard, reporting a roughly 40% rise in H100 rental prices.x.com ↗
- article2026The Innermost LoopAnnounces the Ornn Compute Price Index on Bloomberg and argues transparent compute pricing is needed for lending, insurance and hedging; the author discloses a financial interest in Ornn.theinnermostloop.substack.com ↗The First Tradable Compute Price IndexThe Innermost Loop
- paper2026arXivProposes a futures contract on AI inference tokens and uses simulations to estimate how much it could reduce firms' compute cost volatility.arxiv.org ↗
- article2026Silicon DataResponds to objections about non-fungibility, the lack of a standard unit and short hardware lifecycles, arguing other markets have overcome similar problems.silicondata.com ↗
- paper2026BIS Quarterly ReviewExamines how hyperscalers finance data centers through off-balance-sheet vehicles, long-term leases and capacity offtake agreements.bis.org ↗Financing the AI infrastructure boom: on- and off-balance sheet borrowingBIS Quarterly Review
- podcast2026Village Global (Worldbuilders)Evan Conrad discusses the economics of GPU compute, offtake contracts and how SF Compute evolved from an accidental GPU cloud.villageglobal.com ↗Evan Conrad on the AI Compute Bubble, GPU Offtake, and Why SF Compute Looks Like MarriottVillage Global (Worldbuilders)
- article2026Silicon DataExplains why a credible GPU price index needs broad coverage and normalization of comparable prices rather than simple averages.silicondata.com ↗Building a Robust GPU IndexSilicon Data
- article2026Forward Market DesignSurveys startups, decentralized networks and exchanges racing to build marketplaces for compute.blog.forwardmarketdesign.com ↗The Race to Build Compute MarketsForward Market Design
- article2026Buy the Rumor; Sell the NewsArgues the safest-looking AI infrastructure debt instruments sit on a risky underlying neocloud business model.davefriedman.substack.com ↗The GPU Debt TreadmillBuy the Rumor; Sell the News
- post2026brianbreslowArgues a compute futures exchange is a large opportunity if a team can combine a full-stack exchange with physical delivery rather than cash settlement only.x.com ↗
- podcast2026MessariUSD.AI's COO discusses on-chain GPU-backed loans for neoclouds as an alternative to banks and private credit.youtube.com ↗
- podcast2026Semi DopedOrnn's CTO discusses building a financial exchange for GPU compute, pricing dynamics, hedging and GPU depreciation.buzzsprout.com ↗
- article2026OrnnCompares buying, leasing and reserving GPUs, focusing on the basis risk between what a contract delivers and what a workload actually needs.ornn.com ↗
- article2026Dave Friedman (Substack)Looks at GPU-backed lending and the immature valuation, depreciation and secondary-market infrastructure underneath it.davefriedman.substack.com ↗How GPUs Became the Newest Financial AssetDave Friedman (Substack)
- article2026OrnnAnnounces a contract that guarantees a minimum future resale value for GPUs, aimed at operators and lenders exposed to depreciation risk.ornn.com ↗
- post2026VanEckArgues spot H100 pricing is not very market-moving for most bitcoin/AI miners but points directionally to a real demand shock.x.com ↗
- article2026Buy the Rumor; Sell the NewsExamines the GPU depreciation debate and whether hyperscaler earnings depend on long useful-life assumptions.davefriedman.substack.com ↗The $176 Billion Accounting Question at the Heart of the AI BoomBuy the Rumor; Sell the News
- article2026OrnnContends that accounting depreciation schedules for GPUs diverge from real economic value loss, which is driven mostly by newer architectures rather than hardware failure.ornn.com ↗
- video2026SiliconANGLE theCUBECarmen Li discusses why rental prices differ for GPUs that look the same on paper.youtube.com ↗
- article2026OrnnMakes the case that heterogeneous GPU compute needs a transaction-based index to serve as a shared price benchmark.ornn.com ↗
- paper2026Bank for International SettlementsBIS Bulletin No 120 documenting the shift in AI and data-center investment from internal cash flows toward debt financing.bis.org ↗Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debtBank for International Settlements
- article2026Liquid ComputeArgues that the term structure of GPU rental prices already supports tenor trades, index contracts and hedging by operators, lenders and buyers.liquidcompute.com ↗Compute Is Already TradingLiquid Compute
- paper2026MPRAAnalyzes whether and how funds could hold GPUs or GPU derivatives under US securities and commodities law, and sketches a dual SEC/CFTC framework.ideas.repec.org ↗
- article2025Silicon DataTraces the fall of H100 rental prices from scarcity-era highs to a few dollars per GPU-hour by late 2025, and the supply forces behind it.silicondata.com ↗
- article2025OrnnDescribes how chipmakers, clouds and AI labs finance one another, arguing the practice pulls demand forward and obscures prices until transparent markets mature.ornn.com ↗
- article2025Princeton CITPUses secondary-market GPU prices to question the long useful lives assumed in hyperscaler accounting.blog.citp.princeton.edu ↗AI Chip Lifespans: A Note on the Secondary MarketPrinceton CITP
- article2025OrnnLays out Ornn's design for cash-settled compute futures that settle on a daily-average GPU price benchmark, so buyers and sellers can hedge without physical delivery.ornn.com ↗Compute FuturesOrnn
- article2025OrnnArgues that compute is a non-storable flow good priced over time, so electricity markets are a better model for hedging it than oil.ornn.com ↗
- post2025Epoch AIEpoch AI thread estimating that a B200 costs Nvidia about $6,400 to produce, implying roughly 80% chip-level gross margins.x.com ↗
- article2025Epoch AIEstimates the B200's production cost, with high-bandwidth memory making up about half.epoch.ai ↗
- paper2025NBERNBER working paper using API usage data to document facts about pricing, supply and demand in the market for LLM inference.nber.org ↗
- post2025SerenityNormalizes gross margins across Nebius, CoreWeave and IREN after depreciation and cost structure to compare neocloud GPU pricing economics.x.com ↗
- article2025SiliconANGLEArgues GPUs keep economic value longer than critics assume by cascading from training to inference to batch work, while expecting shorter depreciation schedules.siliconangle.com ↗
- paper2025arXivProposes a market where compute providers stake collateral to mint time-bounded assets and list availability windows for heterogeneous resources.arxiv.org ↗
- article2025Form v FunctionDraws on oil, electricity and spectrum markets to sketch how standardizing a few attributes of compute could enable liquid trading.formvfunction.substack.com ↗
- article2025CNBCReports Michael Burry's claim that hyperscalers overstate earnings by extending the useful lives of GPUs and servers.cnbc.com ↗
- article2025OrnnA beginner's primer on GPU compute as a priced good, covering benchmarks, price curves and hedging.ornn.com ↗
- video2025DEMi networkCompute Exchange's CEO explains the goal of making GPU compute tradable in an open market.youtube.com ↗
- podcast2025Odd Lots (Bloomberg)DRW founder Don Wilson argues GPU spending will exceed crude oil spending and that a liquid GPU market would lower capital costs for neoclouds.omny.fm ↗The King of Chicago Trading Wants to Build a GPU Market Bigger Than OilOdd Lots (Bloomberg)
- paper2025arXivProposes charging cloud GPU customers for metered resource use rather than rental time and studies when that raises or lowers provider revenue.arxiv.org ↗
- article2025Dave Friedman (Substack)Lists the obstacles to a GPU futures market, including missing benchmarks, supplier concentration, rapid hardware refresh and settlement design.davefriedman.substack.com ↗Will GPU Futures Ever Work?Dave Friedman (Substack)
- article2025AI StreetInterview with Compute Exchange's CEO on building a transparent, auction-based compute market and the mismatch between provider and buyer contract lengths.aistreet.beehiiv.com ↗
- article2025diginomicaExamines Compute Exchange's auction model and pricing calculator and the limits of treating depreciating compute like oil.diginomica.com ↗
- article2025Upstarts MediaReports on OneChronos and Auctionomics teaming up to build an auction-based financial market for GPU compute.upstartsmedia.com ↗
- article2025IEEE SpectrumReports on the launch of Silicon Data's H100 rental index and why price transparency matters for AI businesses and their lenders.spectrum.ieee.org ↗Price Index Could Clarify Opaque GPU Costs for AIIEEE Spectrum
- report2025SemiAnalysisRates GPU cloud providers on reliability, security, orchestration and performance as a buyer's guide to renting GPUs; the finance section is paywalled.newsletter.semianalysis.com · paywall ↗
- post2025SF ComputeSF Compute adds 2,000 H100s to its on-demand market, pitched as the largest interconnected cluster rentable by the hour.x.com ↗
- video2025The CurveTalk by SF Compute's co-founder on how GPU markets work, recorded at The Curve in November 2024.youtube.com ↗
- article2024Latent SpaceArgues that H100 rental prices collapsed from roughly $8/hr to under $2/hr as resold reservations and new supply flooded the market, and works through the resulting ROI math.latent.space ↗$2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble BurstLatent Space
- report2024SemiAnalysisExamines how neoclouds are built and priced, including H100 rental price cuts, cluster bills of materials and ownership costs.newsletter.semianalysis.com · paywall ↗AI Neocloud Playbook and AnatomySemiAnalysis
- paper2024arXivProposes a blockchain-based Global Compute Exchange for trading computing power to reduce underutilization and price volatility.arxiv.org ↗
- article2024Sequoia CapitalEstimates the AI revenue needed to justify GPU and data center spending, finding a gap of roughly $600B per year.sequoiacap.com ↗AI's $600B QuestionSequoia Capital
- paper2024arXivEstimates that the amortized hardware and energy cost of frontier training runs has grown about 2.4x per year since 2016.arxiv.org ↗
- paper2024arXivArgues that compute's detectability, excludability and concentrated supply chain make it a lever for AI governance, and discusses the risks of such policies.arxiv.org ↗
- report2023SemiAnalysisCompares CPU and GPU cloud business models with a TCO model and discusses hyperscalers' disadvantages against GPU-focused clouds.newsletter.semianalysis.com · paywall ↗GPU Cloud Economics Explained – The Hidden TruthSemiAnalysis
- paper2022Epoch AIFinds that GPU FLOP/s per dollar has doubled roughly every 2.5 years across hundreds of GPU models.epoch.ai ↗Trends in GPU price-performanceEpoch AI
- indexn.d.Silicon DataSilicon Data's family of daily GPU rental price benchmarks, including the SDH100RT H100 index distributed on Bloomberg.silicondata.com ↗Silicon IndexSilicon Data
- reportn.d.Silicon DataGovernance and methodology document describing how Silicon Data's GPU rental indices are calculated, overseen and published.silicondata.com ↗
- podcastn.d.Latent SpacePodcast episode and transcript in which SF Compute's CEO explains GPU cloud economics, the company's resale market, and the goal of a spot index to support cash-settled futures.latent.space ↗
- podcastn.d.Latent SpacePodcast episode and transcript on why physical settlement matters for a compute market and how SF Compute's order book matches buyers and sellers.latent.space ↗
- indexn.d.SemiAnalysisHourly spot-contract composite rental price indices for H100, A100 and B200, with a high-level methodology; full data requires institutional access.gpu-index.semianalysis.com ↗H100 Daily & Contract Pricing IndexSemiAnalysis
- papern.d.Working paperWorking paper on settlement-benchmark design for GPU rental-rate futures and which hedgers remain exposed to basis risk.rubenfernandezfuertes.com ↗Compute Futures: Who Is Left Exposed?Working paper